Kitchen Garden Forum

The weather forecasters, or more accurately their computer models, seem to have completely lost the plot. For the past 20 years or so I have noticed an increasing inability to get it right when it comes to a change in the weather, but in the last few months they have excelled themselves. Indeed, over the past few weeks I have come to look on them as forecasts of what the weather is unlikely to be.

The problem seems to be in that in their attempt to make the models more refined, they have only succeeded in making them unstable. Thus on Wednesday morning this week my local metcheck forecast (netweather seems to use the same or similar model) was forecasting a temperature in the mid-60's for Thursday afternoon. By Wednesday afternoon that had changed to the low 50's and by Thursday morning it was back to the low 60's. In actual fact the temperature was in the low 70's. And on Thursday evening the forecast for this Saturday was for a temperature in the mid-40's with heavy sleet. This morning the forecast has now changed to be the mid-high 50's and dry!.

When, last year, I ventured to suggest on the metcheck forum, when it was open to non-weather nerds, that the forecasts were only accurate when the weather was settled, I got the response that, 'well Colin, that's what makes weather interesting'. Less shame than MPs!

Mind you, I have to say that in my area I watch the weather forecast with great interest - well, no that's a lie. I watch the weather girl.

Hi Colin

I get really frustrated with the weather forcasts, too.
Like all gardeners, I've been keeping a close eye on night-time temperatures this week, a bit concerned about some of my tender crops. A couple of days ago, the BBC forcast was suggesting temperatures of 9-10 degrees, which is perfectly ok for my all plants (sorry, when it comes to cool temperatures, I can only think in centigrade!). The Met Office, on the other hand, was suggesting it might be around 4 degrees - decidedly chilly for some of them! That is a huge difference

Admittedly, on TV forcasts, they usually warn you that there can be big differences between towns and countryside temps, and variations in cloud cover, but even so!

When it comes to general weather, whether it will rain or not in this area, I have found that the only way I can get an accurate prediction is to look at the BBC's predicted satellite forcast, then draw my own conclusion. If they are showing a band of rain passing over me the next day, I know it is likely to rain. Simple. I don't know why they haven't twigged this one themselves yet, but instead they stick a sunshine symbol over me when the satellite suggests rain, and rain symbols when the satellite shows the rain missing me.

Try it - it works, honest

A note of disagreement.

I have become increasingly impressed by the accuracy of the BBC forecasts for NW Wales. Having said that I am surprised at the disparity between the web forecast the teletext forecast and the "moving" map on TV. The last of these has regularly been accurate to the hour for changes in the weather. The only adjustment I make is this: living on a small peninsula, if the forecast is for showers the chances are that we miss them.
Having looked at other weather websites I long since decided they were inaccurate, verging on the nonsensical. I'll stick with the BBC

Well Alan, as you may be aware, Bournemouth and other places have been complaining recently about the BBC forecasts. The problem I have with the BBC is that they don't seem to narrow it down enough. Certainly the way that 'new' maps are displayed and the length of time allocated to the forecasts just don't one enough time to digest what is going on. The clouds and rain areas move too quickly - pure guesswork anyway.

Just looked at the latest Metcheck forecast for tomorrow afternoon and it has changed again - now into the 60's!

I am hoping that someone from these weather stations, or even the BBC, will see this link and have the courage to engage in a debate on this subject on a Forum outside of their control.

I no longer listen to weather forecasts as they never seem to be right. Fellow plot holders were telling me yesterday (with much glee) that we were to expect rain over the weekend....so far there is no sign! Maybe now I've said that....tempting providence and all that......??? Cheers

Elaine wrote:I no longer listen to weather forecasts as they never seem to be right.

I find that if you listen carefully, as I'm sure you used to before you stopped listening, or much better watch the forecasts, they are more often than not right - i.e. a good indicator of conditions for a short time ahead.
Frankly I have listened for years to people - mostly gardeners - who only listen for key words like hot, snow, rain, frost and pay no attention to where these are forecast. Recently I have had my neighbour say at least twice "Glaw heno!" - "Rain tonight!", only to have me reply yes, but not here!
A question for those of you who doubt the forecasters: do you believe there are many professional sailors who listen to the shipping forecast and then shrug it off with "Force 10 gales - they're always wrong!!?
And it might have been better if the oranisers and participants in this event had paid more attention to the bad weather which was forecast for this area yesterday. Apart from anything else it would have saved many thousands of pounds spent by the rescue services.