The Future of Food and Farming

[alan refail]

Major report to be published today "The Future of Food and Farming".

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2 ... ion-crisis

[Johnboy]

I would like to be a 'fly on the wall' at the Soil Association's headquarters this morning!
JB.

[Geoff]

Can't find the actual report yet that is supposed to be published today - bet Alan finds the link before long.

[Tony Hague]

Quite a contrast to the views in this article:

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/co ... 86968.html

"Interestingly, another detailed report on "sustainability" published last week by the French national agricultural and development research agencies came up with the same answer. The French scientists set themselves the goal of discovering whether a global population of 9 billion, the likely peak according to the UN, could readily have access to 3,000 calories a day, even as farms take measures to cut down on the use of fossil fuels and refrain from cutting down more forests: their answer was, you will be thrilled to know, "yes". "


Who is right ?

[alan refail]

Can't find the actual report yet that is supposed to be published today - bet Alan finds the link before long.

Sorry, Geoff, took a little longer than expected but here it is

http://www.bis.gov.uk/foresight/our-wor ... assessment

Tony Hague

Any chance of a link to the French report?

[Geoff]

Thanks - there's rather a lot of it! There's a BBC version http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12249909

[Tony Hague]

I guess it comes from this book:

Agrimonde. Scenarios and Challenges for Feeding the World in 2050
Editorial coordination: Sandrine Paillard, Sébastien Treyer and Bruno Dorin
Matière à débattre et décider collection
Editions Quae
2010

Hope you can read French. New scientist mentions it too, also without full reference:

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn1 ... -2050.html

[alan refail]

I guess it comes from this book:

Agrimonde. Scenarios and Challenges for Feeding the World in 2050
Editorial coordination: Sandrine Paillard, Sébastien Treyer and Bruno Dorin
Matière à débattre et décider collection
Editions Quae
2010

Hope you can read French. New scientist mentions it too, also without full reference:

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn1 ... -2050.html

Merci bien Tony. Le français n’est pas le problème. I just baulked at shelling out 29,40 € for a pdf copy

http://www.quae.com/fr/livre/?GCOI=27380100796800

[Johnboy]

Hi Alan,
Thank you so much for bringing this document before us.
What a document! The work that has gone into its production is incredible.
I have been reading the section C6 and have only got as far as part 4:3 and my eyes will not take any more at present but I like what I have read so far and will have to read this document in several/many bites.
What I will say is that this document is very long overdue and it is not all the product of the present administration.
I will return to it later and read on.
JB.

[alan refail]

I would like to be a 'fly on the wall' at the Soil Association's headquarters this morning!
JB.

Hi JB

No response so far from SA, but this from GM Watch.

http://www.gmwatch.org/latest-listing/1 ... oach-fails

[richward]

The Soil Association released an initial response to the Foresight report yesterday.

Honesty on technology is needed

We need to be honest about the failures of certain technologies - such as GM - to provide food for a growing world population, says Molly Consibee, the Soil Association's director of campaigns and communications.

Commenting on the recently published Foresight report The Future of Food and Farming, Molly Conisbee, Campaigns and Communications Director at the Soil Association says:

"We need to be honest about the failures of certain technologies – such as GM – to provide food for a growing world population. Despite billions being pumped in to GM, it has failed to deliver against its promises. The majority of the world is fed by small, local, often organic farmers. These systems are better for the environment, better for animal and human welfare, and offer more resilience to issues such as the rise in oil and fertiliser price rise shocks.

Contrary to the pro-GM advance publicity, the Foresight report contains much that supports agro-ecological methods, such as organic. In particular, it highlights the need for research in agronomy, agro-ecology, soil science and other areas that have been neglected in recent years".

Here's a link to it
http://www.soilassociation.org/News/New ... fault.aspx

[Tony Hague]

On scanning the Foresight executive summary, it did not appear to major on GM in the way that the popular articles seemed to suggest, so to that degree, the SA have a valid point. In fact it was not really at odds with the French ideas, especially the importance of curbing waste, although it is not so optimistic. The truth probably lies somewhere between.

Incidentally, I once contributed to a Foresight report on robotics - along with a lot of other researchers, who unsurprisingly found there was a need - for more research ! So read with supplies of NaCl to hand

[Johnboy]

Hi Alan,
With GM Watch and the Soil Association they both keep referring to GM as a failed system but think that we do not note their opposition to anything GM to even be trialled. I think that the spirit of the document says that GM has it's part to play and this means that these people must give up their meaningless rhetoric against GM which more often than not is totally untrue. The use of theories presented as facts is their usual trick.
On Farming Today this morning Sir John Beddlington was asked about Organics and he said that there should be room for them but not in the main stream of things. (not verbatim) So he was rather dismissing organics not as failed but ineffectual.
We need to grow an awful lot more of our own food and Organics is the way to under utilise land which in these times is the exact opposite to what is needed. Organics have not failed yet, but given the opportunity, they very soon will. It is no good getting to 2050 to find the UK on the list of countries where starvation exists and with organics this is what will happen.
Organics set out to feed only those who can afford the high premiums and because of the lower returns with organic growing the farmers rely on the increased premium to give them a living. This does not help the country one jot! So if commercial organics became the norm where would the premium come from? This is where organic mathematics goes into the realms of fantasy. But this is where the starving would come from!
JB.

[richward]

I think that the spirit of the document says that GM has it's part to play and this means that these people must give up their meaningless rhetoric against GM which more often than not is totally untrue. The use of theories presented as facts is their usual trick.

Do you have a specific example of this?

[John Walker]

You can still hear an interview with Sir John Beddington talking about the release of the Foresight report, on Radio 4's Today programme (25.1.11) online via the BBC iPlayer.

For some balance in this debate you can also listen to a discussion in the same programme between Devinder Sharma, chair of the Forum for Biotechnology and Food Security, and Roger Martin of the Optimum Population Trust.

Sharma's viewpoint is that the world produces more than enough food already, and that there are other factors we need to consider rather than be bounced into this brave new world of 'sustainable intensification'.

Beddington (11 mins)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/ne ... 371410.stm

Sharma/Martin (5mins)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/ne ... 371568.stm

As to the interview with Beddington on Farming Today (25.1.11), at no point does he say that
organics is 'ineffectual'. In fact what stands out from the interview is that the interviewer eagerly led Beddington down a path where he found it easy to dismiss organics out of hand. The interviewer would have shown more journalistic rigour if she had asked him how this new 'sustainable intensification' is going to be sustained in a world of finite and depleting natural resources.

Many GM crops are heavily dependent on the use of glyphosate weedkiller, one of the most carbon intensive herbicides there is (the same one some gardeners use). What none of these interviews with Beddington have addressed is how biotech agriculture is going to function in a world of rising oil and energy costs generally (and one assumes rising food prices), when we also need to be cutting carbon emissions to avert worsening climate chaos.

Ex-Soil Association director Patrick Holden makes the important point that the report dismisses a move toward self-sufficiency based on re-localised food production, and instead relies on a global food system to solve all the perceived problems. Holden, who contributed to the report, also makes the point that it is effectively recommending 'business as usual' i.e. an unsustainable approach to food production.

But it was good to hear Professor Jules Pretty talking about how farming is finally catching up with organic gardening when he discussed companion planting to repel plant pests and attract beneficial predators. He described it as 'clever, intelligent farming'. Maybe he should start talking to some earth-friendly organic gardeners.

You can listen to that programme online too (15mins), but note that they will all only be available for a few days.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006qj8q