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[richward]

Been following this thread with great interest. I joined the board a few weeks ago, but this is my first post.

I looked at your link Madasafish. Interesting. Piers Corbyn says that document is pure political spin but doesn't say why he thinks that it is. He quotes from the document about reducing emissions and then mentions political reductions. There's no mention of political reductions in his quote. He's just as guilty of doing what he says the report does.

I understand it is a very complicated subject which we could write pages and pages on but I felt there was no substance in that clip. It's very easy to just say this report is pure political spin.

For my first post, hope I haven't gone on too long.

Rich

[madasafish]

Welcome Richward>

Piers can say what he likes. His track record on weather forecasting -like last winter and this summer - and this winter- at least 6 months in advance- is very impressive.

He's also better than the Met Office but I am afraid that is no recommendation...Their long term forecasts deserve the derision they inspire.

[Colin Miles]

Well the Met do seem to be shooting themselves in the foot - see below.

Cheers

Colin

The Met Office.

As the good Dr North reminds us,as recently as late October the Met Office was predicting that we should expect an “unusually dry and mild winter”. This was news to every independent weather forecaster in the world from Joe Bastardi to Piers Corbyn who have been predicting a harsh winter for months.

[Nature's Babe]

The berries on the holly told me that we were in for a hard winter

[Monika]

NB, you must know that that's an old wives' tale about harsh winters being presaged by lots of berries! It just depends on the weather conditions at the time of flowering and, preceding that, the ripeness of the wood to produce lots of flowers in the first place. In other words, the berry harvest depends on the past and doesn't foretell the future.

[richard p]

on the other hand
usually the weather averages itself out over the year
so a nice warm summer grows pleanty of berries for a cold winter
a cold summer gives less berries and a warm winter follows
simples

[Colin Miles]

Here's another interesting little bit.

The Uncertainties of Global Warming
Sea Level Could Rise in South, Fall in North

http://www.spiegel.de/international/wor ... 03,00.html

[Colin Miles]

Just to give one little bit from that article.

Stammer, who is the director of the Center for Marine and Climate Research at the University of Hamburg, is familiar with the incorrect notions that lay people have, which is why he likes to present them with two numbers to shatter their illusions. "In the Indian Ocean, the sea level is about 100 meters (330 feet) below the average, while the waters around Iceland are 60 meters above the average."

Fascinating!

[richward]

Hi

Read the article. That first paragraph you posted suggested to me the article would be debunking rising sea levels. But reading it my understanding of it is that sea levels will rise and fall so will have a negative impact on humans. What did you think Colin?


Rich

[Colin Miles]

Read the article Richward. Yes, sea levels will rise and fall and it may well have a negative effect on us. But a lot depends on where you are and what happens with an enormously complex interaction between Geology, Geography, Meterology, Astronomy and so on. As the last paragraph states
'Fraught with Uncertainty'

Europeans also need to keep an eye on the possibility of a significant shift in the prevailing wind directions. "For us, this could mean low-pressure troughs over the North Atlantic," says Böning.

But this is precisely where the precision of the climate predictions reaches its limits. "Of course," as Böning openly admits, "they are fraught with uncertainty, which also applies to our models for the rise in sea levels."

The oceanographer is well aware that this message is not very satisfactory for politicians who are expected to make decisions in Cancun. That's why he emphasizes the principle of foresight. "We should prepare ourselves for unpleasant surprises," says Böning.

But I was particularly interested in the bit about the large existing variations in sea level which I, and I think most people, would not be aware of and that the fact an average rise of 7 m might mean zero for some and a lot more for others. It also raised the interest question, for me anyway, regarding mountain height. What baseline is used? With the Indian Ocean being 100 metres below average and the waters around Iceland 60 metres above, are the Himalayas actually not as high as they say?

[Nature's Babe]

Monika, that was said with tongue in cheek, but the closest to that in a smiley was a wink !

[richward]

Sorry, I haven't quite worked out how to do quotes yet.

madasafish - I've watched that Youtube link you posted a few times. I agree Piers Corbyn can say what he likes, as, within reason so can we all. I can't comment on his forecasts, I've never seen any of them. Before seeing that clip, i hadn't heard of him. But I found the clip fairly uninformative. As I said, it's easy to say this or that is rubbish but it's a shame Piers Corbyn, doesn't back it up with anything. He seems to have quite a following though, based on the Youtube comments.


Rich

[richard p]

the only way you can determine that one ocean is x meters lower than another is by calculating their distance from the centre point of the earth.... fine for a spherical earth ... but the earth aint spherical....so how do you determine the position of the centre point?
why doesnt the water flow from the high ocean to the low one?

to me its scientists inventing garbage to reinforce their pet theories when common sense should tell them their theories are wrong.

ive yet to see someone waterskiing without a boat on the slope between two oceans

[madasafish]

Colin
I read that article with interest.

My comments are:
NO mention of the fact that falling ice levels in Greenland would mean less mass on Greenland so the land levels would rise and hence displace more sea. That is basic stuff (geology) which I would expect a serious study to comment on.

No mention of the effect of the moon and tides and the rotation of the earth. That is basic stuff (oceanography) which I would expect a serious study to comment on.

And any article which contains the following
By contrast, sea levels are lower in the Indian Ocean because, eons ago, a meteorite most probably knocked so much rock out of the Earth's crust there that the gravitational force attracting water was reduced.

can not be serious.. "Most probably" means "we have no idea".

[Colin Miles]

Hi Madasafish,

Well, in a newspaper article you can't expect a detailed discussion on the whys and wherefores. They did mention land rising and falling due to the last ice age and obviously any reduction in large ice sheets will involve compensating land movements. On QI last night the interesting fact came out that the furthest point from the earth was in South America, about a mile from the Equator where the top of the 20,000 ft mountain is actually 1.3 miles further from the centre than Everest. Actually a small distance in relation to the size of the Earth, but large to us.